中国商务机市场大幅降温

China’s Business Aviation Market Zooms a Little Slower
中国商务机市场大幅降温

China’s fast-growing business aviation market has hit a rough patch.

中国快速增长的公务航空市场遇到了困难。

During an eight-year run beginning in 2005, deliveries of new jets expanded by about 20 percent a year, according to industry data. But now the country’s economy is growing at its slowest rate in nearly a quarter-century. Customers have less to spend. And those who can spend are afraid of becoming casualties in the government’s anti-corruption austerity campaign.

行业数据显示，从2005年开始，新机交付量连续八年保持着约20%的增长速度。但眼下，中国经济的增长速度是近四分之一个世纪以来最慢的。顾客的支出减少了。而那些有消费能力的人，则害怕成为政府反腐倡廉运动的打击对象。

Growth hit only 15.5 percent in 2014, according to a report by the Asian Sky Group consultancy, released in mid-April. With deliveries lagging one to two years behind orders, the worst may be yet to come, one analyst said.

从咨询公司亚翔航空(Asian Sky Group)在4月中旬发布的一份报告来看，2014年新机交付数量增幅仅为15.5%。一名分析人士称，鉴于交付比下单时间晚一到两年，最糟糕的情况可能还没到来。

“I don’t think anybody’s been spared,” said Jeffrey Lowe, managing director at the Asian Sky Group. “If you look at all the other high-end commodities that have been impacted as far as China sales, it’s certainly not surprising that business jets are feeling the crimp.”

“我觉得谁都躲不过去，”亚翔航空总经理罗世杰(Jeffrey Lowe)说。“看看在华销量受到影响的其他高端商品，公务机的紧日子也就丝毫不足为奇了。”

Asian Sky’s report said the combined markets of China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan were “very much in decline.” The net number of aircraft added to the combined fleets was more than 100 in 2012, a number that dropped to 64 in 2013 and 59 last year, it said.

亚翔航空的报告称，中国大陆、香港、澳门和台湾的市场算在一起，出现“大幅下滑”。报告说，2012年这几个市场的飞机总量增加了100多架，而在2013年和2014年，新增飞机数量分别降至64架和59架。

Deer Jet, the largest charter operator in the region, was, in 1995, the first company to offer charter services inside China. The company has been forced to adapt as demand has evaporated, said Fang Xinyu, Deer Jet’s vice president. Mr. Fang said the company had reduced its fleet by more than 30 percent in the last two years, because of a slowing economy and “some factors not related to the industry itself.”

金鹿公务是该地区最大的包机运营商。1995年，该公司成为首家在中国境内提供包机服务的公司。如今，金鹿公务副总裁方新宇表示，随着需求的蒸发，该公司已被迫做出改变。方新宇称，过去两年里，因为经济放缓以及“一些与行业本身无关的因素”，公司将飞机数量减少了逾30%。

Mr. Lowe estimated that China’s large charter companies have had a 40 percent drop-off in business since President Xi Jinping began his austerity campaign after assuming power in late 2012.

罗世杰估计，自中国国家主席习近平在2012年年底掌权后开始发起倡廉运动以来，中国大型包机公司的业务减少了40%。

“Charters have gone away, just like gift-giving and banquets,” he said, noting that for most large Chinese charter operators, the central government had been one of the biggest sources of business. Chartering a large aircraft from Deer Jet for a domestic flight costs 60,000 to 80,000 renminbi, or $9,600 to $12,900, an hour. But even if government demand bounces back, Mr. Fang said, many challenges remain, particularly in terms of regulation and infrastructure.

“包机业务消失了，就像送礼和宴请一样，”他说。他指出，对中国大部分大型包机运营商来说，中央政府曾是最大的业务来源之一。从金鹿公务包一架大型飞机飞国内航班的花费，是一小时6万到8万人民币。但方新宇表示，即使政府的需求出现反弹，其他很多挑战依然存在，特别是在监管和基础设施方面。

“We need more airspace, more flexible scheduling, more parking slots and more professionals,” he said. “These things will play a decisive role in China’s business aviation development.”

“我们需要更多空域、更灵活的时间安排、更多停机位和更多专业人员，”他说。“这些将在中国的公务航空发展中起决定性作用。”

The industry’s uncertainty was reflected in April at the three-day Asian Business Aviation Conference and Exhibition in Shanghai, a gathering of multinational manufacturers, charter and management companies, and other service providers.

今年4月，行业的不确定性在上海举行的亚洲商务航空会议及展览会上体现了出来。在为期三天的活动上，跨国制造商、包机和管理公司及其他服务供应商齐聚一堂。

Recent installments have been upbeat affairs, often featuring announcements of large orders. At last year’s exhibition, Minsheng Financial Leasing confirmed it had placed orders for 70 business jets. This year, there were no major jet orders.

前不久的这类活动都是形势喜人的盛事，常常会有大订单宣布。在去年的展览会上，民生金融租赁证实已下单订购了70架公务机。但在今年，大型飞机订单并没有出现。

“Clearly, China is going through a time of change,” said Ed Bolen, president and chief executive of the National Business Aviation Association, a Washington-based industry organization that co-hosts the Chinese aviation exhibition. “If you look at the past two years, it has cooled down a little.”

“显然，中国正在经历一个变革时期，”总部设在华盛顿的行业组织美国国家公务航空协会(National Business Aviation Association)会长兼首席执行官埃德・博伦(Ed Bolen)说。该协会是前述中国活动的主办方之一。“从过去两年来看，有些降温了。”

Mr. Lowe of Asian Sky said the slowdown has touched all aspects of the market. He added that many of China’s state-owned banks ― including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China and the China Development Bank ― had entered the business-jet leasing market following the lead of Minsheng, which placed its first order in July 2010.

罗世杰表示，增长放缓已经影响到了市场的各个方面。他接着表示，继民生2010年7月首次下订单后，包括中国工商银行、中国农业银行和国家开发银行在内的很多国有银行纷纷效仿，进入公务机租赁市场。

Now many of those banks are looking to sell underused aircraft, creating sales competition for manufacturers like Gulfstream, Bombardier and Dassault Falcon. But even without external pressures, the business-jet market may simply be hitting its natural level, Mr. Lowe said.

眼下，这些银行中很多都打算出售未受充分使用的飞机，这对湾流(Gulfstream)、庞巴迪(Bombardier)和达索猎鹰(Dassault Falcon)等制造商的销售构成了竞争。但罗世杰表示，即便没有外部压力，公务机市场可能也达到了其自然水平。

“We’re seeing more financings, we’re seeing more refinancings and a lot more pre-owned aircraft, too. But those are all the things that should be happening in a maturing market,” said Mr. Lowe, who has worked in sales at Gulfstream and Bombardier. For plane manufacturers, “I don’t think China was their top-performing market last year, let’s put it that way. Whether that’s 50 percent down, I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised.”

“我们看到融资和再融资都在增加，二手飞机也大大增加。但在一个日渐成熟的市场上，这些都是正常的，”曾在湾流和庞巴迪的销售部门任职的罗世杰说。对飞机制造商而言，“这么说吧，我觉得去年中国不是它们表现最好的市场。是不是下滑了50%我不确定，但如果真是，我也不感到吃惊。”

Exactly how much new jet sales have cooled is difficult to pin down, as manufacturers would not disclose details of jet orders. China is not the only market that has slowed recently; Russian and Latin American demand has decreased as well, leading Bombardier to announce in May that it would slash 1,750 business-jet division jobs.

新飞机的销量具体下降了多少难以确定，因为制造商不会公布飞机订单的细节。中国不是唯一一个最近增长放缓的市场。俄罗斯和拉美的需求也下降了，促使庞巴迪在5月宣布，将在公务机部门裁员1750人。

Gulfstream is the most popular aircraft manufacturer in China, accounting for 32.3 percent of business jets there. Roger Sperry, the company’s regional senior vice president for international sales for Asia Pacific, described the mood of the industry in China as “cautiously optimistic.”

湾流是最受中国欢迎的飞机制造商。中国32.3%的公务机都出自该公司。湾流亚太区销售高级副总裁罗杰・斯佩里(Roger Sperry)表示对中国公务机行业形势持“谨慎乐观”态度。

“Customer interest continues to be strong ― it’s just taking longer to close deals,” Mr. Sperry said. He added that Gulfstream’s customers were primarily public and private companies, followed by individuals.

“顾客的兴趣依然强烈，只是达成协议所需要的时间变长了，”斯佩里说。他接着表示，湾流的顾客主要是上市公司和私营公司，接下来是个人。”

Michael Han, regional vice president for sales for greater China at Bombardier Business Aircraft, which is close behind Gulfstream, declined to discuss specifics, but said his company had faced “some challenges” in the Chinese market in the last few years.

紧随湾流之后的是庞巴迪公务飞机公司(Bombardier Business Aircraft)。该公司的大中华区销售副总裁韩智宇不愿讨论详情，但表示自己公司过去几年在中国市场面临“一些挑战”。

Yet the slowdown in sales, leases and charters is hardly chasing anyone out of the Chinese market, analysts say. One is even predicting a comeback year.

但分析人士称，销售、租赁和包机业务的放缓不会真的把谁赶出中国市场。有人甚至预测好势头会在今年回归。

Jason Liao, chief executive of the China Business Aviation Group, said he expected orders to grow more than 15 percent this year on the back of China’s most recent stock boom. He said he was aware of “five or six” orders in recent months by people who had become rich on the bull market’s high returns before sudden share price slumps in June and July.

中国公务航空集团首席执行官廖学锋表示，在中国最近这一轮股市繁荣的背景下，预计今年的订单会增加15%以上。他说，仅他自己知道的，就有在6、7月份股价突然暴跌之前凭借牛市的高回报致富的人，在最近几个月下了“五六份”订单。

“The amount of wealth that has been created by the stock market in the past six months is staggering,” Mr. Liao said in early June. “We have people calling us now saying, ‘I’ve made so much money on the stock market, now I want to buy a jet.’ ”

“过去六个月里，股市创造的财富数额惊人，”廖学锋6月初说。“现在有人给我们打电话说，‘我在股市赚了很多钱，现在想买架飞机。’”

Even if stock market volatility continues or prices decline further, some data suggests China’s business aviation market will continue to find new ways to make money. Most notably, business jets are still used at only a fraction of the rate they are in all other regions. According to Bombardier, greater China had four aircraft for every $100 billion of gross domestic product in 2013, compared with 23 in Africa, 42 in Latin America and 69 in North America. Bombardier is projecting 11 percent compound annual growth for aircraft delivery to greater China through 2023.

一些数据显示，即使股市的波动继续下去，或是股价进一步下跌，中国的公务航空市场仍会继续寻找新的赚钱途径。最显著的是，公务机在中国的使用比率，仍只相当于其他所有地区的一小部分。据庞巴迪介绍，2013年大中华区每1000亿美元国内生产总值对应的公务机数量是四架，而在非洲、拉美和北美，这个数字分别是23、42和69。庞巴迪预计，一直到2023年，交付给大中华区的飞机数量的复合年增长率会是11%。

“The Chinese business aviation industry is still in an early stage of development; the potential market is still huge,” Mr. Fang said. “This is just the beginning.”

“中国的公务机行业仍处在发展的初期阶段；潜在市场依然巨大，”方新宇说。“这仅仅是个开始。”