人民币贬值或因经济大幅放缓引担忧

China Devalues Its Currency as Worries Rise About Economic Slowdown
人民币贬值或因经济大幅放缓引担忧

HONG KONG ― As China contends with an economic slowdown and a stock market slump, the authorities on Tuesday sharply devalued the country’s currency, the renminbi, a move that could raise geopolitical tensions and weigh on growth elsewhere.

香港――在对付经济发展放缓和股市暴跌的同时，中国当局于周二大幅降低了人民币的比值，这一做法可能会引起地缘政治的紧张局势，拖累世界其他地方的经济增长。

The central bank set the official value of the renminbi nearly 2 percent weaker against the dollar. The devaluation is the largest since China’s modern exchange-rate system was introduced at the start of 1994.

中国央行将人民币兑美元的官方汇率降低了近2％。这是自从1994年引入现代化汇率制度以来，人民币兑美元的最大一次贬值。

China’s abrupt devaluation is the clearest sign yet of mounting concern in Beijing that the country could fall short of its goal of roughly 7 percent economic growth this year. Growth is faltering despite heavy pressure on state-owned banks to lend money readily to companies willing to invest in new factories and equipment, and despite a stepped-up tempo of government spending on high-speed rail lines and other infrastructure projects.

中国货币的突然贬值是北京对经济情况的担忧日益加大的迄今最明显的迹象，北京担心可能达不到今年约7％的经济增长目标。尽管政府向国有银行施加了很大压力，让它们向愿意投资新工厂、新设备的企业提供现金贷款，尽管政府加快了对高速铁路等基础设施项目的投资步伐，但经济增长仍无起色。

A steep drop in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in late June and early July, only halted by aggressive government actions, appears to have dented consumer demand within China. Automakers, typically a bellwether of demand, have announced declines in sales last month; Ford China, for example, said last Friday that its sales had fallen 6 percent last month compared with July of last year.

上海和深圳股市六月下旬、七月初的大幅下跌，尽管在政府积极救市行为影响下得到缓解，但似乎已经削弱了中国国内的消费需求。通常具有需求前导性的汽车制造商们已宣布，上个月的销售额出现下滑。比如，福特汽车（中国）上周五表示，与去年七月相比，今年七月份的销售额下降了6％。

China’s devaluation represents a difficult dilemma for the Obama administration. The United States Treasury has tried to use quiet diplomacy in recent years to encourage China to free up its currency policies, while blocking efforts in Congress to punish China for major intervention in currency markets over the past decade to slow the rise of the renminbi. Many in Congress have long accused China of unfairly building up its manufacturing sector at the expense of American jobs by undervaluing the renminbi, and the Chinese devaluation could fan those criticisms.

人民币的贬值给奥巴马政府带来一个两难的问题。美国财政部近年来一直试图通过秘密外交途径来鼓励中国开放货币政策，同时阻止美国国会中有人要惩罚中国的努力，这些人认为中国政府在过去十年中为了降低人民币升值的速度，大力干预货币市场。许多国会议员长期以来指责中国，通过贬低人民币的汇率，用不公平的方法促进中国制造业发展，这是以美国就业机会为代价的。此次人民币汇率的降低可能又会煽起这种批评。

In a seeming nod to such concerns, the central bank said that it would begin to use the market closing, not the previous morning’s official setting, to calculate the renminbi’s official daily fixing against the dollar. But China’s economic weakness now means that further opening up of the currency to market forces could mean a weaker renminbi, not a stronger one. That, in turn, would make Chinese goods even more competitive in the United States and Europe.

看来似乎是对上述担忧的某种承认，中国央行表示，以后将用头一天外汇市场收盘时的汇率，而不是头一天开盘时官方设定的中间价，来计算每日的人民币兑美元的官方汇率。但是，中国目前的经济疲软意味着，让人民币比值更多地受市场力量的影响，可能会使人民币趋弱、而不是走强。其结果会是让中国商品在美国和欧洲更具有竞争力。

China’s central bank “has finally thrown in the towel on supporting the renminbi,” said Eswar S. Prasad, a professor of economics at Cornell University. At the same time, he added, easing its grip on the currency’s value “has blunted criticism by combining the currency devaluation with a more market-determined exchange rate.” The United States and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund have called on China to be more hands-off in managing the renminbi.

中国央行“终于放弃了挺人民币的做法”，康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学教授埃斯瓦尔・S・普拉萨德(Eswar S. Prasad)说。他补充说，在放松对人民币比值严格控制的同时，央行“通过将货币贬值与更多地由市场决定的汇率相结合，让上述批评显得无力”。美国、以及诸如国际货币基金组织等机构已经呼吁中国，在人民币的管理上采取更放手的做法。

The Chinese currency has been a global point of contention for nearly a decade. China officially ended the renminbi’s fixed peg to the dollar in 2005. Since then, it has risen in two long, slow climbs. The first was from July 2005 to August 2008, when it was interrupted by the global financial crisis. The renminbi then resumed its rise from June 2010 to early last year, when it dipped slightly, then stabilized.

中国货币在近十年来一直是一个全球争论的问题。2005年，中国正式结束了在人民币与美元之间采取固定汇率的做法。自那时起，人民币有过两次长时间地缓慢升值。第一次是从2005年7月至2008年8月，那次升值过程被全球金融危机打断。人民币自2010年6月起恢复升值，直到去年年初出现小幅贬值之后趋稳。

The overall increase since 2005 has been more than 25 percent against the dollar. It has strengthened even more against other major currencies, like the euro and the yen.

自2005年以来，人民币兑美元汇率的整体涨幅已经超过25％。人民币兑其他主要货币、比如欧元和日元的汇率增长得更多。

But the Chinese currency is not freely tradable, and its movements are tightly controlled by the government.

但是，中国货币仍不能自由交易，而且其走势受到政府的严格控制。

Each morning in Shanghai, China’s central bank sets a midpoint for the renminbi’s value against the dollar and other major currencies. This can be as much as 2 percent higher or lower than the previous day’s value, although the change is almost always a tiny fraction of 1 percent.

中国央行每天上午在上海设定人民币兑美元、以及兑其他主要货币的汇率中间价。这个中间价可以比前一天的高或低最多2％，虽然每天的变化几乎从来都远低于1％。

But on Tuesday, the central bank fixed the value of the renminbi at 6.2298 per dollar, down 1.9 percent from Monday’s official fixing. In a statement on its website, the central bank said it was seeking “to perfect” the renminbi’s exchange rate against the dollar.

但是周二，央行将人民币兑美元的汇率中间价定在了6.2298，比周一的汇率官方中间价低了1.9％。央行在其网站上的声明中表示，正在寻求“完善”人民币兑美元汇率中间价的报价。

The bank, the People’s Bank of China, said it was reacting to trends in the market, where traders in recent months had been betting on a weaker renminbi. In trading in mainland China on Tuesday, the renminbi weakened further to close at 6.3231 per dollar, a drop of 1.8 percent from the close on Monday. By the end of the Asian business day, it had fallen even further in offshore trading to around 6.36 renminbi per dollar, a drop of about 2.7 percent, signaling overseas investors expected further weakening.

作为央行的中国人民银行表示，它是在对市场趋势做出响应，近几个月来，交易商在外汇市场上一直在押注人民币走弱的趋势。周二在中国大陆的外汇市场交易中，人民币进一步贬值，以6.3231元人民币兑1美元的汇率收盘，比周一交易结束时的汇率下降了1.8％。在亚洲市场交易日结束时，人民币在海外市场的汇率进一步下降，低到约6.36元人民币兑1美元的水平，贬值约2.7％，这是海外投资者预期人民币会进一步趋弱的信号。

The move also jolted the currencies of countries that depend heavily on China as a market for exports. The Australian dollar fell 1.1 percent against the United States dollar on Tuesday, and the South Korean won declined 1.4 percent.

人民币比值的降低也影响了严重依赖对中国出口的国家的货币市场。澳大利亚元兑美元的汇率周二下跌了1.1％，而韩元兑美元的汇率下降了1.4％。