国际油价持续下跌引发全球性担忧

From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest
国际油价持续下跌引发全球性担忧

Oil, the lifeblood of many countries that produce and sell it, appears to be rapidly turning into an ever-cheaper economic curse.

石油作为许多产油国的命脉，似乎正在快速落入一个不断跌价的经济诅咒。

A year ago, the international price per barrel of oil was about $103. By Monday, the price was about $42, roughly 6 percent lower than on Friday.

一年前，国际油价为一桶103美元。截至周一，油价跌至大约42美元，比上周五的价格下降了将近6%。

In oil-endowed Iraq, where an Islamic State insurgency and fractious sectarian politics are growing threats, a new source of instability erupted this month with violent protests over the government’s failure to provide reliable electricity and explain what has been done with all the promised petroleum money. In Russia, a leading oil producer, consumers are now paying far more for imports, largely because of their currency’s plummeting value. In Nigeria and Venezuela, which rely almost completely on oil exports, fears of unrest and economic instability are building. In Ecuador, where oil revenue has fallen by nearly half since last year, tens of thousands of demonstrators pour into the streets every week, angered by the government’s economic policies.

在石油资源丰富的伊拉克，伊斯兰国(Islamic State)叛乱及难以处理的宗派政治带来越来越多的威胁，成为本月爆发暴力抗议活动、引发不稳定的新源头，民众因为政府没能提供可靠电力，没有解释所有石油收入的用途而进行抗议。在主要的石油生产国俄罗斯，由于卢布大幅贬值，消费者在购买进口商品时要支付更多的钱。在几乎完全依赖石油出口的尼日利亚和委内瑞拉，对动乱及经济不稳定的担忧不断加剧。在厄瓜多尔，自去年以来，石油收入减少了将近一半，每周都有数以万计对政府经济政策不满的示威者涌上街头。

Even in wealthy Saudi Arabia, where the ruling family spends oil money lavishly to preserve its legitimacy, the government has been burning through roughly $10 billion a month in foreign exchange holdings to help pay expenses, and it is borrowing in the financial markets for the first time since 2007. Other Arab countries in the Persian Gulf that are dependent on oil exports, including Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, are facing fiscal deficits for the first time in two decades.

甚至在富有的沙特阿拉伯都是如此，统治家族在那里耗费大量石油收入维护其合法性，政府每个月耗费将近100亿美元的外汇储备，用于支付运转费用，该国自2007年以来首次在金融市场借款。波斯湾地区其他依靠石油出口的阿拉伯国家20年来首次出现财政赤字，比如科威特、阿曼及巴林。

While the price has been declining for months, forecasts have always been hedged with the assumption that oil would eventually stabilize or at least not stay low for long. But new anxieties about frailties in China, the world’s most voracious consumer of energy, have raised fears that the price of oil, now 30 percent lower than it was just a few months ago, could remain depressed far longer than even the most pessimistic projections, and do even deeper damage to oil exporters.

油价下跌已经持续数月，但对前景的预期总是围绕着这样一个假设：油价最终会稳定，或者至少不会长期保持较低水平。中国是世界最大的能源消费国，中国脆弱的经济引发新担忧，促使人们担心，油价低迷的时间，可能比你最悲观的推测还长得多，甚至会对石油出口商造成更大的损害，现在油价比几个月前下跌了30%。

“The pain is very hard for these countries,” said René G. Ortiz, former secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and former energy minister of Ecuador. “These countries dreamed that these low prices would be very temporary.”

“对于这些国家来说，这种痛苦是难以忍受的，”前石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)秘书长、前厄瓜多尔能源部长勒内・G・奥尔蒂斯(René G. Ortiz)表示。“这些国家原以为油价下跌只是暂时的。”

Mr. Ortiz estimated that all major oil exporting countries had lost a total of $1 trillion in oil sales because of the price decline over the last year.

据奥尔蒂斯估计，由于去年油价下跌，所有主要石油出口国的石油销售额总共减少了一万亿美元。

“The apparent weakness in the Chinese economy is radiating out into the world,” said Daniel Yergin, the vice chairman of IHS, a leading provider of market information, and the author of two seminal books on the history of the oil industry, “The Prize” and “The Quest.”

“中国经济的明显疲软波及到全世界，”主要市场信息提供商IHS副董事长丹尼尔・耶金(Daniel Yergin)说。耶金出版了两本有关石油工业历史的重要著作――《石油大博弈》(The Prize)和《能源重塑世界》(The Quest)。

“An awful lot of producers who enjoyed good times were more dependent on Chinese economic growth than they recognized,” Mr. Yergin said. “This is an oil shock.”

“很多享受繁荣时期的生产商对中国经济发展依赖的程度超过了他们的认识，”耶金说。“这是一场石油危机。”

Although the price drop has most directly hurt oil exporters, it also may signal a new period of global economic fragility that could hurt all countries ― an anxiety that already has been evident in the gyrating stock markets.

虽然油价下跌最直接伤害的是石油出口商，这也可能标志着会影响所有国家的全球经济疲软的到来，剧烈波动的股市已经明显体现了这种担忧。

The price drop also has become an indirect element in the course of Syria’s civil war and other points of global tension. Countries that once could use their oil wealth as leverage, like Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, may no longer have as much influence, some political analysts said. Iran, which once asserted it could withstand the antinuclear embargo of its oil by the West, appeared to have rethought that calculation in reaching an agreement on its nuclear activities last month.

油价下跌还成为导致叙利亚内战及其他全球紧张局势的间接因素。一些政治分析人士表示，俄罗斯、伊朗及沙特阿拉伯等曾将石油财富当作手段的国家可能不再拥有那么大的影响力。伊朗曾宣称能够经得起西方国家禁运石油的反核举措，但现在似乎反思了这一判断，于上个月就其核活动达成协议。

Of course, lower oil prices confer economic benefits, too. The average American household, for instance, buys 1,200 gallons of gasoline every year. And gasoline, on average, has sold for most of this year by roughly a dollar a gallon less than in 2014.

当然，低油价也带来了经济收益。例如，美国家庭平均每年购买1200加仑汽油。而在今年的大部分时间里，一加仑汽油的售价比2014年的售价少一美元。

But even while lower oil prices stimulate economies of consuming countries, a protracted decline carries many unanticipated consequences ― starting with the economic weakness in developing countries that buy increasing amounts of goods from the United States and others in the industrialized world.

低油价刺激了消费国的经济发展，但油价的持续下跌带来了很多意想不到的后果――比如从美国购买越来越多商品的发展中国家和其他工业化国家的经济疲软。

A supply glut has been evident for some time, driven partly by a vast increase in Saudi production and a growing energy self-sufficiency in the United States, which was once heavily reliant on Middle East oil.

供应过剩明显已有一段时间，这部分是由沙特石油产量大增及美国能源自给能力的增强造成的，美国曾严重依赖中东石油。

Saudi Arabia not only is producing a record amount, but also is increasing the number of rigs drilling for future production. And its Gulf allies, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, are following suit. Even with the turmoil wrought by the Islamic State, Iraq’s production has jumped nearly 20 percent since the beginning of the year.

沙特阿拉伯不仅在产量上创下纪录，还增加了用于未来石油开采的钻探装备。其海湾盟友阿拉伯联合酋长国和科威特紧随其后。尽管有伊斯兰国造成的骚乱，伊拉克的产量自今年年初以来还是增加了将近20%。

The surge in production may seem counterintuitive, since lower prices can cause self-inflicted economic wounds and potentially incite more political and social trouble. But all the exporters in the Middle East are struggling with each other to protect Asian markets, now that the United States is using much less of their oil.

产量的剧增似乎违背常理，因为价格下跌会导致自己的经济创伤，可能会引发更多政治及社会问题。但由于美国对其石油的需求减少，中东地区的所有出口国都在争相保护亚洲市场。

The Gulf states, said Sadad I. Al-Husseini, former executive vice president of the Saudi Aramco oil company, “don’t want to take on the role of oil price regulators because the market is far too big and too political for them to manage it.”

沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)石油公司前执行副总裁萨达德・I・侯赛尼(Sadad I. Al-Husseini)表示，海湾国家“不希望扮演油价监管者的角色，因为对于他们来说，这个市场过大，过于政治化，难以管理。”

Had these producers curtailed their production late last year, he said, “a flood of new oil supplies from the U.S., Canada, the deep offshore and other basins would have continued to undermine the oil markets, and prices would have collapsed to where they are now in any case.”

他表示，如果这些产油国在去年晚些时候减少产量，“来自美国、加拿大、深海及其他海湾的新石油供应会继续侵蚀石油市场，油价无论如何也会跌至现在的水平。”

The global glut is likely to worsen if the nuclear deal with Iran is approved, potentially releasing as much as one million more barrels onto the 94-million-barrel-a-day global market in a year or so.

如果伊朗核协议获得批准，全球石油产量过剩的情况会进一步加剧，可能会在一年左右的时间里促使日产量增加100万桶，现在全球市场的日产量为9400万桶。

Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, has made no secret about his country’s intentions. “We will be raising our oil production at any cost, and we have no other alternative,” he was quoted Sunday in Iran’s state-run news media as saying.

伊朗石油部长比詹・纳姆达尔・赞加内(Bijan Namdar Zangeneh)毫不隐瞒该国的计划。周日，伊朗官方新闻媒体援引他的话称，“我们将不惜代价增加石油产量，我们别无选择。”

The big change in recent years has been the surge of United States oil production, adding more than four million barrels a day to global supplies. But in recent months the oversupply has been driven primarily by the Saudis, who have flooded the market in what economists regard as a deliberate attempt to drive down the price so that other high-cost producers can no longer compete ― most notably the Americans.

近些年来的大变化在于美国石油产量的剧增，致使每天的全球供应量增加了400多万桶。但近几个月来，这种过多供给主要是由沙特阿拉伯造成的，该国的石油大量涌入市场，经济学家认为这是在故意通过此举压低油价，如此一来，其他生产成本较高的产油国就不再具有竞争力――尤其是美国。

Still, production in the United States has not declined as much as foreseen by the Saudis, who thought the price of oil would stabilize at about $50 a barrel. Now it may be headed to $30, the lowest level since the 2008 global economic recession.

但美国的减产不及沙特阿拉伯预测的那么多，后者认为油价会稳定在每桶50美元。而如今，油价朝着每桶30美元进发，这是自2008年全球经济衰退以来的最低水平。

The Saudis, the most important member of OPEC, have resisted calls by other members to reduce output. The result is that nearly all OPEC members, who together control much less of the global market than they once did, are pumping more oil.

作为石油输出国组织最重要的成员国，沙特阿拉伯拒绝了其他成员国的减产要求。结果导致几乎所有成员国加大产量，与过去相比，这些国家加起来在全球市场的占有率下降了很多。

“We are witnessing competition between member states over market share, and most of these countries are dependent on oil as a primary source of income,” said Luay Al-Khatteeb, a nonresident fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Doha Center. If prices do not recover to the $60 a barrel level, he said, “and countries in the Arab region continue to rely on oil revenue heavily, we could see decades of decline.”

“我们目睹了成员国之间抢占市场份额的过程，其中大多数国家都依赖石油，以此为主要收入来源，”布鲁金斯多哈中心(Brookings Doha Center)外交政策部门客座研究员卢埃・哈特博(Luay Al-Khatteeb)说。他表示，如果价格不回到每桶60美元的水平，“而阿拉伯地区的国家继续严重依赖石油，可能会出现数十年的衰退。”

David L. Goldwyn, who was the State Department special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs in the first Obama administration, said that if the Brent global oil benchmark price stays below $45 a barrel, that is “a red flag for stability issues across the oil producing world.”

曾在奥巴马总统第一任期内任国务院国际能源事务特使兼协调员的戴维・L・戈尔德温(David L. Goldwyn)表示，如果全球基准布伦特石油的价格依然低于每桶45美元，这是对“各个石油生产国的稳定问题发出了危险信号”。

“The hemorrhaging of government budgets reliant on oil will force dramatic cuts in spending or dangerous increases in borrowing, if not both,” Mr. Goldwyn said. “The countries without significant foreign exchange reserves are most at risk, and they include Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Venezuela and Iraq. The countries which need to sustain investment to maintain political legitimacy need to be worried, and that’s Brazil, Russia and even Iran.”

“依赖石油收入的国家一旦出现财政赤字，就会被迫大幅减少支出，或危险地增加借贷，或者同时采取两种措施，”戈尔德温说道。“那些没有大量外汇储备的国家最危险，包括尼日利亚、安哥拉、阿尔及利亚、委内瑞拉和伊拉克。也有必要为那些需要持续投资才能保证其政府政治合法性的国家担忧，这包括巴西、俄罗斯，甚至伊朗。

Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy program at Harvard’s Kennedy School, said she was most immediately concerned about the impact of extended low oil prices on Iraq.

哈佛肯尼迪学院能源地缘政治项目主任梅根・L・奥沙利文(Meghan L. O’Sullivan)表示，她眼下最为担心的是石油价格继续保持低位有可能对伊拉克产生的影响。

“Not only is fighting ISIS an expensive endeavor, but many of the political deals that need to be done to keep different groups supportive of the Iraqi government require money to sustain,” she said.

“不仅抗击伊斯兰国需要大量资金，伊拉克还有很多为让不同群体持续支持政府而达成的政治交易，这也同样需要资金。”她说道。

But Ms. O’Sullivan expressed a longer-term worry about possible miscalculations by Saudi Arabia, on both the duration and magnitude of the oil price drop.

而从长远来看，奥沙利文认为沙特阿拉伯的情况也不容乐观，该国有可能在石油价格下降的持续时间和程度上都做出了错误判断。