融冰无助油气开采，国际油企北极遭遇多重阻碍
Melting Ice Isn’t Opening Arctic to Oil Bonanza
融冰无助油气开采，国际油企北极遭遇多重阻碍
TERIBERKA, Russia ― The warming Arctic should already have transformed this impoverished fishing village on the coast of the Barents Sea.
俄罗斯捷里别尔卡――北极变暖本来应该已经改变了巴伦支海岸边的这座贫困渔村。
The Kremlin spent billions in the last decade in hopes of turning it into a northern hub of its energy powerhouse, Gazprom. It was once the most ambitious project planned in the Arctic Ocean, but now there is little to show for it aside from a shuttered headquarters and an enormous gravel road carved out of the windblown coastline like a scar.
在过去十年中，克里姆林宫花费了数十亿美元，希望将其变成该国能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom，简称俄气）的北部中心。它曾经是北冰洋上最雄心勃勃的项目，但现在这里几乎什么也没有，除了大门紧闭的总部，和一条开凿出来的巨大石路，在风蚀的海岸线上显得如同一道疤痕。
“There are plans,” said Viktor A. Turchaninov, the village’s mayor, “but the facts ― the realities of life ― suggest the opposite.”
“是有一些计划，”村长维克托・A・图尔恰尼诺夫(Viktor A. Turchaninov)说。“但实际情况――生活的现实――适得其反。”
The dream of an Arctic Klondike, made possible by the rapid warming of once-icebound waters, has been at the core of Russia’s national ambitions and those of the world’s biggest energy companies for more than a decade. But even as Royal Dutch Shell began drilling an exploratory well this summer off the north coast of Alaska, Russia’s experiences here have become a cautionary tale, one that illustrates the challenges facing those imagining that a changing Arctic will produce oil and gas riches.
一度冰封的水域急剧升温，令“北极的克朗代克”梦想有了实现的可能。这是俄罗斯国家愿景的一个核心，也是全球顶级能源公司十多来年的目标。但是，就算荷兰皇家壳牌公司(Royal Dutch Shell)今年夏天开始在阿拉斯加北部海岸附近尝试性地钻探一口油井，俄罗斯在这里的经历也敲响了警钟。那些想象北极的变化将带来油气财富的人，将从中看到自己面临的挑战。
Tectonic shifts in the global energy economy, fierce opposition from environmentalists who oppose tampering with the ecologically fragile waters, and formidable logistical obstacles have tempered enthusiasm that only a few years ago seemed boundless. After years of planning and delays, Shell’s drilling project in the stormy waters of the Chukchi Sea is now being watched by the industry, officials, residents and critics as a make-or-break test of the viability of production in the Arctic.
仅仅几年前，人们对在这里采油的热情还显得无比高涨，但全球能源经济的根本性转变，环保人士对破坏生态脆弱水域的激烈反对，以及艰巨的后勤障碍消磨了这种热情。在经过多年的规划和拖延之后，壳牌公司终于开始在楚科奇海的惊涛骇浪中进行钻探。目前，业内人士、政府官员、居民和批评者正在关注它的进展，将其视为对北极产油是否可行的决定性考验。
“From an economic point of view, I’m not sure going offshore Arctic is very rational,” said Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive and president of Total, the French oil company, which once also planned to drill off Alaska’s northern coast.
“从经济角度来看，我觉得去北极海域开采石油可能不太理性，”法国石油公司道达尔(Total)的首席执行官兼总裁潘彦磊(Patrick Pouyanné)说。该公司也一度计划在阿拉斯加北部海域进行钻探。
Shell has already spent $7 billion and this summer has faced tribulations like those that marred an ill-fated exploration three years ago, including dogged protests, harsh weather and an accident in July that gouged a hole in one of its ships after it struck an uncharted shoal in the Aleutian Islands.
壳牌已经投入了70亿美元，并在今年夏天遇到了重重困难，包括不屈不挠的抗议、恶劣的天气和7月的一场事故。当时，公司的一艘船在阿留申群岛撞上了一处地图上未注明的浅滩，被凿出了一个洞。三年前，类似的困难就导致一次坎坷的勘探尝试一败涂地。
Only seven years ago, Shell and other companies ― ConocoPhillips, Statoil of Norway, Repsol of Spain and Eni of Italy ― together paid $2.7 billion for leases for the fields off Alaska. The price of oil at the time climbed to nearly $150 a barrel, and the accelerated reduction of ice that once choked the Arctic Ocean seemed to make exploration easier.
就在七年前，壳牌和康菲石油(ConocoPhillips)、挪威国家石油公司(Statoil)、西班牙雷普索尔(Repsol)和意大利埃尼(Eni)共同出资27亿美元，租下阿拉斯加的海上油田。那时候，石油价格攀升到了每桶近150美元，而且一度牢牢覆盖北冰洋的冰块加速消失，似乎降低了勘探的难度。
Then the market changed. The world today is awash in oil and natural gas, largely because of the shale revolution in the United States and the advent of hydraulic fracturing, which has so increased production that the United States has slashed imports. Saudi Arabia and other states around the Persian Gulf are producing at maximum levels, and if the nuclear agreement with Iran gets final approval and economic sanctions are lifted, Iran’s reserves could soon flood the market. In the last year alone, the price of oil has plummeted to less than $50 a barrel from more than $90.
但后来，市场发生了变化。眼下全世界油气过剩，这主要是因为美国的页岩革命和水力压裂法的问世。水力压裂法使产量激增，导致美国大幅削减了进口。沙特阿拉伯等波斯湾周边国家正在最大限度地生产。此外，如果与伊朗的核协议最终获得批准，经济制裁取消，伊朗的储备可能很快就会涌入市场。单是去年，石油价格便从每桶90多美元暴跌至不足50美元。
The difficulties of getting oil and gas out of the Arctic are daunting. Winters are long and dark, and the Arctic seas, despite reductions in the permanent ice pack, are still clogged with floes and icebergs, while intensifying storms have threatened ships or oil rigs even during the summer. Marshy tundra onshore complicates the construction of pipelines and support facilities. So do coastal erosion and melting permafrost.
从北极开采油气的难度令人却步。冬季漫长，一片漆黑，并且尽管永久性浮冰减少了，但其他浮冰和冰山依然堵塞着北极海域。即便是在夏季，不断加剧的暴风雪也威胁着船只和钻井平台的安全。岸上的沼泽冻原、海岸侵蚀及不断融化的永冻土层，让管道和辅助性设施的修建变得更为复杂。
There are few roads or airports, or people for that matter, near the areas to be drilled, requiring workers and equipment to be shipped long distances. Despite agreements by the Arctic Council, an international organization that includes the United States, Russia and six other Arctic countries, few resources are available for search and rescue or the cleanup of oil in icy conditions. That, along with strict requirements imposed by the Obama administration, forced Shell to send a flotilla of more than two dozen ships to the Chukchi Sea this summer.
在计划钻井的地方附近，几乎没有公路、机场和居民，这就要求用船远距离运送人员和设备。尽管成员包括美国和俄罗斯在内的八个北极国家的国际组织北极理事会(Arctic Council)达成了一致，但在冰天雪地的环境下，几乎没有可以用来搜救或清除油污的资源。这种情况，连同奥巴马政府提出的严厉要求，迫使壳牌在今年夏天向楚科奇海派出了一支由20多艘船组成的队伍。
Even optimistic projections suggest the Arctic might not prove to be as transformative as once imagined. According to Rystad Energy, a global consultancy based in Norway, production from offshore fields in or near the Arctic could double between 2015 and 2025 to 1.4 million barrels a day, which would still be less than 2 percent of current global production.
甚至连乐观的预测都暗示，北极可能最终不像想象中那么容易改造。据挪威国际咨询公司里斯塔能源(Rystad Energy)透露，北极及其附近的海上油田的产量在2015年至2025年会翻倍，达到每天140万桶，这仍然不到目前全球产量的2%。
“When people say the Arctic is the next frontier and there is great resource potential, of course there is the risk that it is hype,” said Jon Marsh Duesund, a Rystad senior project manager.
斯塔能源公司高级项目经理乔恩・马什・杜松德(Jon Marsh Duesund)说，“当有人说北极是新前沿，拥有巨大的资源潜力时，当然会有夸大的可能。”
High Hopes in Disrepair
期待落空
Teriberka, a village of 1,000 people on the Barents Sea, is where Gazprom’s offshore ambitions collided with the harsh realities of the Arctic.
在巴伦支海附近拥有1000人的捷里别尔卡村，俄气的海上野心与北极的严酷现实产生冲突。
It was a thriving fishing village in Soviet times, with fish-processing factories and even a farm for harvesting the pelts of snow foxes, but it fell into decline in the 1970s with the advent of industrial fishing. The population dropped from more than 6,000, wooden piers crumbled, and fishing boats that once brought back cod were scuttled in the bay where the Teriberka River flows into the sea.
这个村庄在苏联时期是一个繁荣的渔村，拥有鱼类加工厂，甚至还有一个以获取皮毛为目的的雪狐养殖场，但随着工业捕鱼的出现，该村庄在20世纪70年代开始衰败。人口从原来有6000多人不断减少，木质桥墩垮塌，曾经带回鳕鱼的渔船被凿沉在捷里别尔卡河入海处。
Like people in Alaska and other places who look to the changing Arctic for economic development and jobs, the village’s residents welcomed Gazprom’s plans to tap an enormous gas field, called the Shtokman, that was discovered in 1988 about 370 miles offshore.
与阿拉斯加及其他地方希望改造北极以促进经济发展和就业的人一样，该村庄的居民对俄气开发巨大的什托克曼天然气田的计划表示欢迎，这个于1988年被发现的天然气田距离岸边大约370英里。
Under the control of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Gazprom emerged as an energy giant controlled by the state, and for much of the 2000s, the Shtokman was its biggest prize, a project that Russia dangled before eager foreign investors. After reaching deals with Total and Statoil, Gazprom began construction of the road in Teriberka where it hoped to build terminals for processing and shipping the gas in liquefied form ― all at a cost estimated to rise to $20 billion.
在俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔・V・普京(Vladimir V. Putin)的控制下，俄气崛起，成为由国家控制的能源巨头。在21世纪头十年的大部分时间里，什托克曼天然气田是俄气最大的收获，俄罗斯在热切的外国投资者前炫耀该项目。在与道达尔和挪威国家石油公司达成交易后，俄气开始在捷里别尔卡修路，希望在这里建造用于加工、运送液化天然气的枢纽，所有费用升至200亿美元。
After years of work, however, Russia’s plans for the project came under pressure from enormous technical challenges, the changing energy market and finally the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
但经过几年的努力，俄罗斯有关该项目的计划面临压力，遭遇了巨大的技术挑战、能源市场的变化，以及具有决定性的2008年、2009年全球金融危机。
Russia, as the world’s largest producer of natural gas, found itself struggling to compete against alternative supplies to countries in Europe eager to reduce their dependence on Mr. Putin’s government, even as prices dropped significantly.
作为世界最大的天然气生产国，俄罗斯发现在价格大幅下跌时，自己难以与欧洲国家的其他供应来源竞争，这些国家渴望减少对普京政府的依赖。
Despite Gazprom’s promises to resume drilling ― in 2014, then in 2016 or 2019 ― residents in Teriberka have become resigned about the boom that never was. The contractors who arrived in droves have departed, and the enormous embankment where Gazprom built a gravel road, encroaching on the village’s cemetery, comes to a dead end at a rocky cliff.
尽管俄气承诺――在2014年，然后是2016年或2019年――恢复钻探，捷里别尔卡的居民已经放弃对这种虚假繁荣的信心。蜂拥而至的承包商纷纷离开，俄气建造的砾石路的巨大路堤侵占了该村庄的墓地，最终止于一个悬崖边。
Teriberka is better known now as the location of the Oscar-nominated “Leviathan,” a bleak film that depicts one man’s struggle against a venal bureaucrat who wants to seize his beloved house on the bay.
如今的捷里别尔卡最出名的是作为奥斯卡提名影片《利维坦》(Leviathan)的故事发生地。这部基调阴郁的影片讲述了一名男子与腐败官员对抗的故事，那些官员想要侵占他那座位于海湾的心爱的房子。
“They built the road,” Igor Abanosimov said when a neighbor lamented that the project had changed little. Mr. Abanosimov owns a series of floating cottages that he rents out, dreaming, perhaps improbably, of developing a yacht club and other amenities that might attract tourists instead of energy companies. The Arctic, he said, has its own soul.
当一名邻居抱怨称该项目变化不大时，伊戈尔・阿巴诺西莫夫(Igor Abanosimov)说，“他们修建了公路。” 阿巴诺西莫夫有许多用于出租的水上小屋，尽管有些难以想象，但他希望能创办一个游艇俱乐部及其他可能会吸引游客而不是能源公司的设施。他说，北极有自己的灵魂。
“Those it wants to accept, it accepts,” he explained. “Those it wants to banish, it banishes.”
“它想接受谁就接受谁，”他解释称。“想赶走谁就赶走谁。”
Shell’s Many Mishaps
壳牌的诸多事故
In late August, a ferocious storm whipping through the Chukchi Sea forced Shell to suspend its drilling operations only a month after one of its two floating rigs drove a drill bit into the seafloor. The company resumed operations after the weather cleared. It was just the latest distraction in Shell’s long effort to tap one of the last remaining untouched giant oil reserves.
8月晚些时候，一场猛烈的风暴席卷楚科奇海，迫使壳牌公司暂停钻探作业，而仅在一个月前， 该公司两个浮动钻井平台中的一个将钻头探入海底。公司在天气好转后恢复作业。开发世上最后一个未经触碰的巨大石油储备是壳牌多年的目标，此次受阻只是他们遇到的一系列挫折中最新的一个。
Three years ago, the company came close to reaching oil, but its plans for two exploratory wells in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas died after a series of bizarre accidents. One of the two drill ships, the Noble Discoverer, nearly ran aground on a sandy beach in the Aleutians. An Arctic containment dome was crushed during a vital test. And a tow line on the second drill ship, the Kulluk, snapped, setting it adrift on the high seas.
三年前公司已经快要采到油，但在楚科奇和波弗特海的两个勘探井计划因一系列奇异的事故而取消。其中一艘钻井船诺布尔发现者号(Noble Discoverer)差一点在阿留申群岛的一处沙滩搁浅。一个北极防漏罩在进行重要测试时遭到损坏。另一艘钻井船库鲁克号(Kulluk)的拖绳断了，导致船在公海上不受控制地漂流起来。
To environmentalists, the accidents bolstered their arguments that exploration in the Arctic is simply too risky. Shell did not give up, though. The company replaced its senior Arctic leadership team and devised another plan to overcome the natural and regulatory hurdles.
对环保人士而言，这些事故再一次验证了他们的观点，北极勘探风险过高。但壳牌没有放弃。公司撤换了在北极的领导团队，并制定了一个新计划，以应对自然和监管方面的问题。
When the ship tried to head back north, protesters tried to block the vessel with kayaks and then suspended themselves from a bridge over the Willamette River, obstructing safe passage. A court then threatened Greenpeace with fines of $2,500 an hour if the protesters did not clear the way.
随着钻井船开始重新向北进发，抗议者试图用小艇加以拦截，并将自己悬挂在威拉米特河的一座桥下，影响船只的安全通过。一家法院随即对绿色和平组织(Greenpeace)发出威胁，如果抗议者不让出航道，将对该组织处以每小时2500美元的罚款。
To be sure, there are those who still believe in the Arctic’s potential. They cite efforts to drill there in the 1970s and 1980s, as well as a study by the United States Geological Survey in 2008 that estimated that 13 percent of the world’s untapped oil and 30 percent of its natural gas lay in the Arctic.
当然，对北极的潜能有信心的仍大有人在。他们指出在1970、80年代曾在那里有过钻探，此外美国地质调查局(The United States Geological Survey)在2008年的一份研究估计，北极蕴藏着全世界13%的未开发石油以及30%的天然气。
The National Petroleum Council, in a report commissioned by the Department of Energy and released this year, said the technology and expertise already existed to extract oil and natural gas safely in icy conditions, replacing declining supplies on Alaska’s North Slope.
美国国家石油委员会(National Petroleum Council)今年发布了一份受能源部(Department of Energy)委托的研究报告，称现有的技术和能力已经足以在冰冻条件下开采石油和天然气，以取代阿拉斯加北坡日渐下滑的供应量。
Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said in a conference call last month that the company’s stake could ultimately be “multiple times” more bountiful than in the vast Gulf of Mexico.
壳牌首席执行官本・范伯登(Ben van Beurden)在上个月的一次电话会议上说，公司投资所带来的回报可能会比广阔的墨西哥湾“多上好几倍”。