全球经济放缓忧虑致美联储不加息

Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
全球经济放缓忧虑致美联储不加息

WASHINGTON ― The Federal Reserve announced on Thursday, after a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee, that it would keep interest rates near zero as officials assess the impact of tighter financial conditions and slower global growth on the domestic economy.

华盛顿――本周四，美联储(Fed)决策委员会结束了为期两天的会议，宣布在官员评估金融市场状况和全球经济增长放缓对美国经济的影响之际，将继续维持接近于零的利率。

Janet L. Yellen, the Fed’s chairwoman, described the decision as a close call.

美联储主席珍妮特・L・耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)称这个决定是在双方意见势均力敌的情况下做出的。

“The recovery from the Great Recession has advanced sufficiently far and domestic spending has been sufficiently robust that an argument can be made for a rise in interest rates at this time,” Ms. Yellen said. But “heightened uncertainness abroad” and slow inflation persuaded the committee to wait for more evidence, including continued job growth, “to bolster its confidence.”

耶伦说，“自大衰退以来，美国经济已经出现大幅复苏，国内消费也变得足够强劲，这为上调利率提供了支持”。但是“国外存在高度不确定性”，而且国内通胀水平提升缓慢，因此委员会决定等待更多的证据出现，“以增强（对加息）的信心”，这些证据包括就业的持续增长。

Ms. Yellen emphasized that the Fed still plans to raise rates this year. The Fed separately released economic projections showing that 13 of the 17 officials on the committee predicted that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate at least 0.25 percentage point this year.

耶伦强调美联储依然打算今年加息。美联储单独发布的经济预测显示，在该委员会的17名官员中，13人预计美联储今年会将基准利率提升至少0.25个百分点。

The policy-making committee has scheduled meetings in October and December, and an initial move, Ms. Yellen said, is possible at either meeting.

负责制定政策的该委员会计划于10月和11月召开会议。耶伦称，可能会在其中任意一次会议上宣布初步行动。

One official, Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, voted to raise rates at the September meeting, the first dissent this year. The economic projections suggest Ms. Yellen faces larger internal disagreements at the Fed’s next meeting in October, as six officials indicated they expect two rate increases this year, while four officials said that they expect none.

在9月的那次会议上，其中一名官员，即里士满联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)行长杰弗里・拉克尔(Jeffrey Lacker)投票支持加息，这是今年的第一次异议。经济预测显示，在美联储将于10月召开的下一次会议上，耶伦面临的内部分歧会更大，因为有六名官员表明希望今年加息两次，同时有四名官员表示希望今年不要加息。

The Fed’s decision, widely expected by investors, showed that Ms. Yellen and her colleagues still lack confidence in the strength of the domestic economy even as the central bank has entered its eighth year of strong efforts to stimulate growth.

美联储的此次决定符合投资者的广泛预期，它显示出尽管作为央行的美联储已是第八年极力刺激增长，但耶伦及其同事对国内经济的势头依然缺乏信心。

Ms. Yellen said China’s economic troubles, and slower growth in other foreign economies, “bears close watching” and was a crucial reason the Fed chose to delay raising rates. But she added that the Fed’s concern should not be overstated. So far, she said, foreign developments had not altered significantly the Fed’s expectations for domestic growth.

耶伦称，中国的经济问题和其他经济体的增长放缓“受到了密切关注”，这是美联储选择推迟加息的一个至关重要的原因。但她接着表示，不应夸大美联储的担心。耶伦说，迄今为止，其他国家的局势发展并未显著改变美联储对国内增长的预期。

“At times when domestic economic signals are finely balanced, global factors are likely to have more of an impact on U.S. monetary policy,” Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics at Cornell University, said in an email. Mr. Prasad described the decision as a “mixed blessing” for the global economy, preserving low rates but extending uncertainty.

“有时候，当国内经济信号处于微妙的平衡状态时，全球因素对美国货币政策的影响可能会加大，”康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学教授埃斯瓦尔・普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)在一封电子邮件中说。普拉萨德称，对全球经济来说，这是一个“喜忧参半”的决定，它保持了低利率，但也扩大了不确定性。

In the United States, by contrast, Fed officials are convinced labor market conditions have nearly returned to normal. In the new round of economic projections, officials estimated that the unemployment rate would stop falling when it reaches 4.8 percent, just slightly below the August level of 5.1 percent. “The labor market continues to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment,” the statement said.

相比之下，在美国，美联储官员相信劳动力市场的情况已回归正常。在新一轮经济预测中，官员预计失业率在降至4.8%，即略低于8月5.1%的水平后，将停止下降。“劳动力市场持续改善，就业岗位数量稳固增长，失业率下降，”声明称。

Officials also remain confident that inflation will rebound, although perhaps a little more slowly. “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term,” the Fed said in a statement.

官员依然相信通货膨胀会反弹，尽管速度可能会稍微慢一些。“近期全球经济和金融状况可能会在一定程度上限制经济活动，在短期内给通胀造成进一步的下行压力，”美联储在声明中说。

The combination of low unemployment and low inflation is unusual, as low unemployment usually leads quickly to higher inflation. Ms. Yellen said the unemployment rate overstated the extent of progress in the labor market. The share of Americans with jobs remains substantially below its precrisis level, and Ms. Yellen said some of those people could resume looking for work as conditions improve.

低失业率加低通胀率的组合有些不同寻常，因为较低的失业率通常很快就会引发通胀水平提升。耶伦说，目前的失业率夸大了劳动力市场取得进展的程度。美国人的就业率仍然大大低于危机前的水平，耶伦还表示，随着经济环境的改善，其中一些人可能会接着寻找工作。

Similarly, workers with part-time jobs may seek full-time employment.

同样，兼职员工可能会去寻找全职工作。

In keeping with that outlook, Fed officials predicted that the Fed’s benchmark rate would rise a little more slowly, reaching 2.6 percent by the end of 2017. In June, they predicted that the rate would reach 2.9 percent. Officials also expect the rate to reach a new plateau of about 3.5 percent, less than the June prediction of 3.8 percent and significantly below the level the Fed once regarded as normal. If rates remain at that level, it would limit the Fed’s ability to respond to economic downturns.

在这样的经济前景下，美联储官员预测，美联储的基准利率将以较慢的速度上调，到2017年年底达到2.6%。今年6月时，他们曾预测，利率将达到2.9%。这次官员们还预期利率达到3.5%左右的新平台，低于6月时3.8%的预测，也大大低于美联储曾经视为正常的水平。如果利率保持在那样的水平上，美联储应对经济低迷的能力就会受到限制。

The Fed already has held its benchmark rate near zero much longer than its own officials had anticipated. The Fed announced in 2012 that it would keep rates near zero until the unemployment rate fell below 6.5 percent. That threshold was crossed in April 2014. Last winter, when the Fed ended its bond-buying campaign, officials pointed to June as the most likely moment for liftoff.

美联储保持基准利率接近于零的时间，已经远远超出其官员预期的时间。美联储曾在2012年宣布，将维持接近于零的利率，直到失业率降至6.5%以下。这个门槛在2014年4月时已经达到。去年冬天，美联储结束购买债券的操作时，其官员曾表示，最有可能在6月上调利率。

Liberal activists and economists pressed hard for the latest postponement, arguing that the economic recovery remains incomplete. Representative John Conyers, a Michigan Democrat, introduced legislation Thursday directing the Fed to push the unemployment rate below 4 percent. Outside the building where Ms. Yellen was scheduled to hold a news conference on Thursday, Mr. Conyers joined a protest organized by the Center for Popular Democracy, chanting “Don’t raise interest rates” along with the crowd.

自由派积极分子和经济学家声称经济仍未完全复苏，因而极力呼吁此次应该推迟。密歇根州民主党众议员约翰・科尼尔斯(John Conyers)周四提出了一项议案，要求美联储把失业率压到4%以下。在耶伦定于本周四举行新闻发布会的大楼外，科尼尔斯加入了大众民主中心(Center for Popular Democracy)组织的抗议活动，在人群中反复高呼“不要加息”。

Ms. Yellen dryly observed, “We have been receiving advice from a large number of economists and interested groups.” But she denied that any outside pressure had influenced the Fed’s decision. She also said the Fed had not been influenced by concerns about a potential government shutdown, which could disrupt growth, though she said such an outcome “would be more than unfortunate.”

耶伦淡然表示，“我们收到了很多经济学家和利益团体的建议。”但她否认美联储的决定受到了任何外界压力的影响。她还说，有人担心政府停摆，从而干扰经济增长，但美联储没有受到这种担忧的影响，不过她表示，那样的后果“将会非常糟糕”。

The tightening of financial conditions in recent weeks also has done some of the work of a rate increase, allaying concerns about excessive speculation. And the persistence of sluggish inflation continues to frustrate the Fed’s predictions.

最近几周金融状况的紧缩也起到了一些利率上调的效果，缓解了人们对过度投机的担忧。持续低迷的通胀水平也仍然与美联储的预测相偏离。

For all their hesitance to raise rates, Fed officials have made clear they are not inclined to wait much longer.

虽然美联储官员对提高利率十分犹豫，但他们也清楚表示，不倾向再等待很长时间。

Monetary policy exerts a gradual influence on economic conditions, and Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice chairman, warned in late August that officials would not be able to postpone a decision until all of doubts were resolved. “When the case is overwhelming,” he said, “if you wait that long, then you’ve waited too long.”

货币政策对经济环境的影响是逐步产生的，美联储副主席斯坦利・费希尔(Stanley Fischer)在8月下旬警告说，官员们不能拖延到所有的疑虑都解决之后才做决定。“在理由很有说服力的时候，如果你等了那么长时间，就太晚了，”他说。

Ms. Yellen echoed that warning on Thursday. “We don’t want to wait until we’ve fully met both of our objectives to tighten monetary policy,” she said.

耶伦也在本周四警告说。“我们不想等到两个目标完全达到之后才收紧货币政策，”她说。