中国冰川持续消融，危及亚洲水源供应

Chinese Glacier’s Retreat Signals Trouble for Asian Water Supply
中国冰川持续消融，危及亚洲水源供应

MENGKE GLACIER, China ― Over the years, Qin Xiang and his fellow scientists at a high and lonely research station in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China have tracked the inexorable effects of rising temperatures on one of China’s most important water sources.

中国梦柯冰川――多年来，科学家秦翔及其同事在中国西北部祁连山上的一座孤零零的高海拔研究站里进行观测，追踪不断上升的气温对中国最重要的水源地之一造成的不可逆的影响。

“The thing most sensitive to climate change is a glacier,” said Dr. Qin, 42, as he slowly tread across an icy field of the Mengke Glacier, one of the country’s largest. “In the 1970s, people thought glaciers were permanent. They didn’t think that glaciers would recede. They thought this glacier would endure. But then the climate began changing, and temperatures climbed.”

“对气候变化最敏感的东西就是冰川，”今年42岁的秦博士一边缓步走在透明梦柯冰川的一片冰面上，一边说。这是中国规模最大的冰川之一。“70年代的时候，大家以为冰川是永远不变的。没想到冰川会退缩。他们以为这座冰川会一直在这里。结果气候开始变化了，温度上升了。”

Beneath Dr. Qin’s feet, the cracking ice signaled the second-by-second shifting of the glacier.

在秦博士脚下，冰发出开裂的劈啪声，提醒人们梦柯冰川每一秒种都在发生变化。

The extreme effects predicted of global climate change are already happening in western China. Glacier retreat here and across the so-called Third Pole, the glaciers of the Himalayas and related mountain ranges, threatens Asia’s water supply. Towns and villages along the arid Hexi Corridor, a passage on the historic Silk Road where camels still roam, have suffered floods and landslides caused by sudden summer rainstorms. Permafrost is disappearing from the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau, jeopardizing the existence of plants and animals, the livelihoods of its people and even the integrity of infrastructure like China’s high-altitude railway to Lhasa, Tibet.

全球气候变化预期将带来的一些极端效应已在中国西部显现。不仅是这里的冰川在退缩，在被称为“第三极”的喜马拉雅及其周边山脉上的各处冰川亦如此，威胁到亚洲的水源供应。在古丝绸之路上的河西走廊，依然有骆驼行进。这里原本气候干旱，但沿途的多座城镇村庄遭遇了突发的夏季暴雨带来的洪灾和泥石流。青藏高原上的永冻土层正逐渐消失，威胁到动植物的生存、居民的生计，乃至通往西藏拉萨的高海拔铁路这样的基础设施的安全。

The fact that Chinese scientists are raising alarms about these changes is a key reason that the Chinese government has been engaging fully in climate change negotiations in recent years. Another is the deadly urban air pollution, caused mostly by industrial coal burning, that resulted in Beijing’s first red alert over air quality on Monday.

中国科学家对这些变化发出的警告是中国政府近年来全力投入气候变化谈判的一个关键原因。另一个原因则是恐怖的城市大气污染。这种污染主要由工业燃煤造成，导致北京在本周一发布了历史上的首个空气质量红色预警。

China, which remains the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas, pledged last year to begin lowering carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, and in Paris this month, President Xi Jinping reiterated his resolve to help slow climate change. There are no vocal climate change deniers among top Chinese officials.

中国目前是世界上最大的温室气体排放国，去年承诺会在2030年左右开始降低二氧化碳的总排放。本月在巴黎，国家主席习近平重申了协助减缓气候变化的决心。中国的最高层官员中，不存在明显否认气候变化的人。

In November, China released a detailed scientific report on climate change that predicted disastrous consequences for its 1.4 billion people. Those included rising sea levels along the urbanized coast, floods from storms across China and the erosion of glaciers. More than 80 percent of the permafrost on the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau could disappear by the next century, the report said. Temperatures in China are expected to rise by 1.3 to 5 degrees Celsius, or 2.3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit, by the end of the century, and temperatures have risen faster in China in the last half-century than the global average.

今年11月，中国发布了有关气候变化的一份详实的科学报告，其中预测了中国14亿人口可能遭受的灾难性后果，包括其城市化的沿海地区的海平面上升、全国各地出现暴雨引发的洪灾，以及冰川侵蚀。文中称，到下个世纪，青藏高原逾80%的永冻土可能会消失。到本世纪末，中国的平均气温预计会上升1.3到5摄氏度。在过去半个世纪里，中国的升温速度要高于全球平均水平。

People across China are already feeling the impact. The most obvious devastation comes from flooding. The report said an increase in urban floods attributed to climate change has destroyed homes and infrastructure. From 2008 to 2010, 62 percent of Chinese cities had floods; 173 had three or more.

中国各地的居民都已感受到了这种影响。最明显的灾害来自洪水。文中称，可归因为气候变化的城镇洪水更为频繁，毁坏了民居与基础设施。2008年到2010年间，62%的中国城镇遭遇了洪水侵袭；173座城市受灾至少三次。

“China is more prone to the adverse effects of climate change because China is vast, has diverse types of ecology and has relatively fragile natural conditions,” Du Xiangwan, chairman of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change, wrote in the report’s introduction.

“中国幅员辽阔、生态类型多，自然禀赋比较脆弱……极易受到气候变化的不利影响，”国家气候变化专家委员会主任杜祥琬在报告的引言中写道。

Last weekend, Chinese scientists released a separate report that said the surface area of glaciers on Mount Everest, which straddles the Tibet-Nepal border, have shrunk nearly 30 percent in the last 40 years.

上周末，中国科学家发表了另一份报告，文中称过去40年里，位于西藏和尼泊尔边境上的珠穆朗玛峰的冰川表面积减少了近30%。

Vanishing glaciers raise urgent concerns beyond Tibet and China.

日渐消失的冰川引发了迫切的担忧，影响超出了藏区和中国的范畴。

By one estimate, the 46,000 glaciers of the Third Pole region help sustain 1.5 billion people in 10 countries ― its waters flowing to places as distant as the tropical Mekong Delta of Vietnam, the hills of eastern Myanmar and the southern plains of Bangladesh. Scattered across nearly two million square miles, these glaciers are receding at an ever-quickening pace, producing a rise in levels of rivers and lakes in the short term and threatening Asia’s water supply in the long run.

有人估计，“第三极”的4.6万座冰川帮助养活了10个国家的15亿人――融水会流向远方，达至地处热带的越南湄公河三角洲、缅甸东部的丘陵和孟加拉国南部的平原。这些冰川分布在近200万平方英里（约合520万平方公里）范围内，正在以不断加快的速度退缩。从短期来看，这会导致河流湖泊水面上升，从长期来看会危及亚洲的供水。

A paper published this year by The Journal of Glaciology said the retreat of Asian glaciers was emblematic of a “historically unprecedented global glacier decline.”

《冰川学杂志》(Journal of Glaciology)今年发表的一篇论文称，亚洲冰川的退缩象征着“全球冰川史无前例的消退”。

“I would say that climatologically, we are in unfamiliar territory, and the world’s ice cover is responding dramatically,” said Lonnie G. Thompson, a glaciologist at Ohio State University who helped found a project to study climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.

“我想说就气候学而言，我们处在一个不熟悉的领域，全世界的冰盖正在做出剧烈的反应，”俄亥俄州立大学(Ohio State University)的冰川学专家朗尼・G・汤普森(Lonnie G. Thompson)说。他参与成立了一个研究青藏高原的气候变化的项目。

Across China, the surface area of glaciers has decreased more than 10 percent since the 1960s, according to the climate change report. The report linked the expected water scarcity to national security, noting that “in the future, disputes between China and neighboring countries on regional environmental resources will keep growing.”

前述气候变化报告称，60年代以来，中国各地的冰川表面积减少了10%以上。报告把预计会出现的水资源匮乏同国家安全联系在了一起，指出“未来中国与邻国之间因区域环境资源问题而产生的争端会不断增加”。

The Qilian range, on the north end of the Tibetan Plateau, straddles three provinces and towers to 18,200 feet. Scientists here at the Mengke Glacier have been studying it from a permanent research station since 2007, one of about 10 major glacier research stations in China. The glacier is six miles long and covers nearly eight square miles.

位于青藏高原北端的祁连山脉地跨三省，最高海拔可达1.82万英尺（约合5550米）。从2007年开始，梦柯冰川这里的科学家一直在一个永久性的观测站里对其进行研究。这是中国大约10个大型冰川观测站中的一个。这片冰川长六英里，覆盖面积近八平方英里。

As it recedes more rapidly, floods here have become more frequent and more powerful. In July, the road to the research station flooded, with water rising more than six feet.

随着冰川退缩速度加快，这里的洪灾变得更加频繁，更加凶猛。7月，通往观测站的路被超过六英尺的洪水淹没。

Zhao Shangxue, who manages logistics here, said that he had had to abandon his car and walk four hours to the station.

在这里管理后勤的赵尚学说，他不得不弃车步行四小时才回到观测站。

“The glacier has always melted in the summertime, but now it melts even more,” he said.

“冰川在夏天向来是会融化的，但现在融化得更多了，”他说。

A report by the research center said the retreat of the Mengke Glacier and two others in the Qilian range accelerated gradually in the 1990s, then tripled their speed in the 2000s. In the last decade, the glaciers have been disappearing at a faster rate than at any time since 1960.

该观测站撰写的一份报告称，梦柯冰川和祁连山脉的另外两座冰川的退缩在90年代逐渐加速，到本世纪初发展到了原来的三倍。过去十年里，冰川的消失速度是1960年以来最快的。

From 2005 to 2014, the Mengke Glacier retreated an average of 54 feet a year, while from 1993 to 2005, it retreated 26 feet a year.

2005年到2014年间，梦柯冰川平均每年退缩54英尺，而其在1993年到2005年间的退缩速度是一年26英尺。

As scientists like Mr. Qin study the glacier and the consequences of its retreat, towns and villages in the region are grappling with a worsening cycle of drought, sudden rainstorms and floods.

在像秦翔这样的科学家对冰川和冰川退缩的后果展开研究时，该地区的城镇和村落正在努力应对日渐恶化的旱灾、突发暴风雨和洪灾的循环。

The town closest to the glacier, Shibaocheng, has been devastated by recent storms. Its 1,250 residents, mostly ethnic Mongolian, graze yaks, horses and sheep in high pastures below the glacier during the summer. In 2012, a sudden rainstorm set off flooding that destroyed about 200 homes. Nearly 14,000 animals were killed or lost.

前不久，离梦柯冰川最近的石包城乡下了几场暴雨。该乡有1250名居民，大部分是蒙古族。夏季，他们会在冰川下的高原牧场上放牧牦牛、马和羊。2012年，一场突如其来的暴雨引发的洪灾毁坏了大约200处房屋，导致近1.4万头牲畜死亡或丢失。

“Old people here say they hadn’t seen such a flood in 50 or 60 years,” said Gu Wei, the deputy mayor. She said rain mixed with hail came down for three days.

“这里的老年人说他们五六十年没见过那么大的洪水了，”副乡长顾伟（音）说。她介绍称大雨夹着冰雹连下了三天。

Scientists have no easy way to determine the exact relationship between the rainfall and the changes in the nearby glacier, Dr. Qin said. “The retreat of glaciers of course has an effect on the climate and on rain patterns, but we can’t measure it,” he said.

秦翔表示，科学家没有捷径可以确定降雨和附近冰川的变化之间的具体关系。“冰川消融当然对气候和降雨模式有影响，但我们没法测量，”他说。

Southeast of Mengke Glacier, 180 miles away along the Hexi Corridor, Sunan County at the foot of the Qilian Mountains has experienced some of the region’s worst flooding. It is home to ethnic Yugurs and has flooded a half-dozen times since 2006.

梦柯冰川的东南方向，沿河西走廊180英里开外，坐落在祁连山脉脚下的肃南县经历了该地区最严重的一些洪灾。该县生活着裕固族，从2006年以来已经发生了六次洪灾。

Five years ago, at least 11 people died in floods and landslides. In July, heavy rains led to similar disasters in 13 villages, destroying more than 150 homes and causing more than $6 million of damage, an official report said.

五年前，至少11人因洪灾和山体滑坡死亡。今年7月，暴雨导致13个村发生类似灾害。官方报道称，灾害导致150多处房屋被毁，造成了600多万美元的损失。