朝鲜氢弹试验深化半岛核危机

North Korea Says It Has Detonated Its First Hydrogen Bomb
朝鲜氢弹试验深化半岛核危机

WASHINGTON ― North Korea declared Tuesday that it had detonated its first hydrogen bomb.

华盛顿――周二，朝鲜宣布成功引爆第一枚氢弹。

The assertion, if true, would dramatically escalate the nuclear challenge from one of the world's most isolated and dangerous states.

这个消息如果属实，将使世界上最孤立也最危险的一个国家的核威胁大大升级。

In an announcement, North Korea said the test had been a “complete success.” But it was difficult to tell whether the statement was true. North Korea has made repeated claims about its nuclear capabilities that outside analysts have greeted with skepticism.

在宣布这一消息时，朝鲜表示，这次试验“圆满成功”。但外界很难判断该声明是否属实。朝鲜已经多次对外宣称自己具备核能力，但外界分析人士一直对此表示怀疑。

“This is the self-defensive measure we have to take to defend our right to live in the face of the nuclear threats and blackmail by the United States and to guarantee the security of the Korean Peninsula,” a North Korean announcer said, reading the statement on Central Television, the state-run network.

“这是我们面对美国的核威胁和恐吓所必须采取的自卫措施，如此我们才能保障自己的生存权利，才能保障朝鲜半岛的安全，”一名朝鲜女播音员在朝鲜官方的中央电视台上朗读的一份声明。

The North's announcement came about an hour after detection devices around the world had picked up a 5.1 seismic event along the country's northeast coast.

当日，世界各地的监测设备都检测到朝鲜东北部海岸发生了5.1级的地震活动，大约一个小时后，朝鲜宣布了氢弹试验成功的消息。

It may be weeks or longer before detectors sent aloft by the United States and other powers can determine what kind of test was conducted. Ned Price, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said in a statement that U.S. officials “cannot confirm these claims at this time.”

可能要过几周、甚至更长的时间，美国和其他大国向高空发射的监测器才能帮助我们明确，朝鲜到底进行了何种试验。白宫国家安全委员会(White House National Security Council)发言人内德・普赖斯(Ned Price)在一份声明中表示，美国官员“眼下无法确定这些声明是否属实”。

But he said the White House expected “North Korea to abide by its international obligations and commitments.”

但他表示，白宫希望“朝鲜能履行其国际责任和承诺”。

The tremors occurred at or near the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, where three other tests have been conducted over the past nine years.

设备检测到的地震活动发生在丰溪里核试验基地或附近区域。在过去九年里，朝鲜还曾在该区域进行过三次核试验。

In recent weeks, the North's aggressive young leader, Kim Jong Un, has boasted that the country has developed the technology to build a thermonuclear weapon ― far more powerful than the low-yield devices tested first in 2006, then in different configurations after President Barack Obama took office, in 2009 and again in 2013.

最近几周，强势的朝鲜年轻领袖金正恩(Kim Jong-un)曾吹嘘，该国终于研发出了制造热核武器的技术，这种武器比2006年首次试爆、并在奥巴马总统执政后的2009年和2013年以不同的配置再次试爆的低当量武器强大得多。

The televised announcement said the test had been ordered by Kim, only three days after he signed an order Sunday for North Korean engineers to press ahead with the attempt.

电视公告称，金正恩下令进行试爆，而三天前的周日，他才刚刚签署命令要求朝鲜的工程师推进试爆计划。

The announcer added that for the North to give up its nuclear weapons while Washington's “hostile policy” continued would be “as foolish as for a hunter to lay down his rifle while a ferocious wolf is charging at him.”

播音员还称，只要美国继续实行“敌对政策”，朝鲜不会放弃核武器，“狼群猛扑上来的时候放下猎枪，这是再愚蠢不过的”。

Satellite photographs analyzed by 38 North, a Washington research institute that follows the North's nuclear activity closely, showed evidence of a new tunnel being dug in recent weeks.

华盛顿研究机构38 North对卫星照片的分析显示，朝鲜最近几周在挖掘新隧道。该机构密切关注朝鲜的核活动

Another test by itself would not be that remarkable. The North is believed to have enough plutonium for eight to 12 weapons, and several years ago it revealed a program to enrich uranium, the other fuel for a nuclear weapon.

又一次的试验本身不会那么引人注目。据信，朝鲜拥有的钚足以制造8到12个核武器，而且朝鲜在几年前透露了一个铀浓缩计划，铀是核武器的另一种燃料。

But if the North Korean claim about a hydrogen bomb is true, this test was of a different, and significantly more threatening, nature.

但如果朝鲜有关氢弹的公告属实，此次试验的性质就和以往不同了，其威胁也要大得多。

In recent weeks, Kim, believed to be in his early 30s and determined to accelerate the nuclear weapons program that his grandfather and his father promoted to give the broken country leverage and influence, boasted that North Korea had finally developed the technology to build a thermonuclear weapon.

最近几周，金正恩曾吹嘘该国终于研发出了制造热核武器的技术。据信年龄为30岁出头的金正恩决定，加速推进其祖父和父亲推动的核武器项目，为这个衰败的国家争取谈判资本和影响力。

When Kim first made the claim, in December, the White House expressed considerable skepticism, and several experts say that the accomplishment would be a stretch, although not impossible.

12月，金正恩发出以上言论时，白宫对此深表怀疑。有几位专家说该计划将耗时费力，虽然并非没有可能。

Outside analysts took the claim as the latest of several hard-to-verify assertions that the isolated country had made about its nuclear capabilities. But some also said that although North Korea did not yet have H-bomb capability, it might be developing and preparing to test a boosted fission bomb, more powerful than a traditional nuclear weapon.

就其核能力，这个孤立的国家曾提出各种难以证实的说法，外界分析人士把这一言论当作其中最新的一个。但也有人说尽管朝鲜尚未拥有氢弹能力，但可能在准备对强化后的裂变原子弹进行试验，比传统核武器威力更为强大。

Weapon designers can easily boost the destructive power of an atom bomb by putting at its core a small amount of tritium, a radioactive form of hydrogen.

通过在原子弹核心放置少量氚，一种氢的放射性形式，武器设计师可以轻易增强原子弹的巨大破坏力。

Lee Sang-cheol, the top nonproliferation official at the South Korean Defense Ministry, told a forum in Seoul last month that although Kim's hydrogen bomb boasts might be propaganda for his domestic audience, there was a “high likelihood” that North Korea was developing such a boosted fission weapon.

上个月，在首尔一个论坛上，韩国国防部负责防扩散事务的最高官员李宋哲(Lee Sang-cheol)说，金正恩夸下了海口，其建造氢弹的说法很可能是针对其国内受众的宣传，但“很可能”朝鲜一直都在研发这样威力大增的裂变式武器。

And according to a paper obtained by the South Korean news agency Yonhap last week, the Chemical, Biological and Radiological Command of the South Korean military “did not rule out the possibility” of a boosted fission bomb test by the North, although it added it “does not believe it is yet capable of directly testing hydrogen bombs.”

据韩联社上周获取的一份文件显示，韩国军方化学、生物、放射性、核或常规高爆物司令部(Chemical, Biological and Radiological Command)“没有排除”朝鲜试验裂变式原子弹的可能性，虽然该文件补充说，“不相信朝鲜目前有能力直接进行氢弹试验”。

For the Obama administration, which only six months ago defused the Iranian nuclear threat with an agreement to limit its capabilities for at least a decade, the announcement rekindles another nuclear challenge ― one that the administration has never found a way to manage.

奥巴马政府六个月前才刚刚解决了伊朗的核威胁，签订的协议会在未来至少十年时间内限制其和能力。对于奥巴马政府来说，朝鲜的公告重新点燃了另一个重大的核挑战，而且每个政府从来没有找到过遏制它的方法。

The North has refused to enter the kind of negotiations that Iran did. Unlike Iran, which denies it has interest in nuclear weapons, the North has forged ahead with tests and told the West and China it would never give them up.

朝鲜此前拒绝进行和伊核谈判相似的对话。与否认对核武器有兴趣的伊朗不同，朝鲜一直在进行核试验，并且告诉西方社会和中国，永远不会放弃核武器。

Obama, determined not to offer the country new concessions, has neither acknowledged North Korea is a nuclear power nor negotiated with it. The White House has said that it would restart talks with the North only if the goal ― agreed to by all parties ― was a “denuclearized Korean Peninsula.”

奥巴马决心不再做出任何新的让步，从未认可朝鲜是一个核武大国，也没有与其谈判过。白宫曾说过只有在各方一致同意谈判目标为“半岛无核化”的前提下，才愿意重启谈判。

China has also failed in its efforts to rein in Kim. He has never been invited to Beijing since his father's death, and Chinese officials are fairly open in their expressions of contempt for him. But they have not abandoned him or cut off the aid that keeps the country afloat.

中国也在试图遏制金正恩方面遭遇了失败。自其父亲过世后，他从未被邀请至北京，中国官员言谈中于他的鄙视也相对公开，但他们还没有抛弃他，也没有切断维持这个国家温饱的援助。

With the test Tuesday night ― Wednesday in North Korea ― three of the North's four explosions will have occurred during the Obama's time in office.

算上美国时间周一晚间，朝鲜时间周二发生的此次试爆，朝鲜的四次核弹试爆中，有三次是在奥巴马任内发生的。

Combined with the North's gradually increasing missile technology, its nuclear program poses a growing threat to the region ― although it is still not clear the North knows how to mount a nuclear weapon on one of its missiles.

加上朝鲜不断提升的导弹技术，其核计划对这一地区构成越来越大的威胁，虽然目前还不清楚朝鲜是否知道如何将核武器装载到导弹上。

The test is bound to figure in the U.S. presidential campaign, where several candidates have already cited the North's nuclear experimentation as evidence of U.S. weakness ― although they have not prescribed alternative strategies for choking off the program.

此次试验也在美国总统大选的讨论范围之内，许多候选人曾指出，朝鲜的核试验已成为美国的一块心病，但他们并未指出可以阻止这一试验的解决策略。

The United States did not develop its first thermonuclear weapons ― commonly known as hydrogen bombs ― until 1952, seven years after the first and only use of nuclear weapons in wartime, the weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

直到1952年，在战时首次（也是唯一一次）使用核武器的七年之后，美国才研制出了首个热核武器（即氢弹）。两颗氢弹被投放在广岛和长崎。