好莱坞气候灾难片里的场景离我们还远吗？

Report Warns of Climate Change Disasters That Rival Hollywood’s
好莱坞气候灾难片里的场景离我们还远吗？

Stonehenge eroding under the forces of extreme weather. The city of Venice slowly collapsing into its canals. The gradual flooding of the Statue of Liberty.

在极端天气的威力下，巨石阵正遭到侵蚀。威尼斯正慢慢沉入运河。自由女神像(Statue of Liberty)渐渐被淹没。

Images like these, familiar from Hollywood climate-catastrophe thrillers, were evoked by a joint report, released on Thursday by Unesco, the United Nations Environment Program and the Union of Concerned Scientists, that detailed the threat climate change could pose to World Heritage sites on five continents.

这样的画面经常出现在好莱坞的气候灾难惊悚片中。周四，联合国教科文组织(Unesco)、联合国环境规划署(United Nations Environment Program)、忧思科学家联盟(Union of Concerned Scientists)联合发布的报告也让人联想起这些画面。这份报告详细描述了气候变化可能对五个大洲的世界遗产遗址造成的威胁。

(The Guardian reported on Thursday that the Australian continent was originally included in the report, but that its government requested it be removed because of concerns that the information would hurt its tourism industry.)

（周四，《卫报》[The Guardian]报道称，澳大利亚所在的大洲本来也包含在这份报告中，但澳大利亚政府要求从中移除，因为担心这些信息会损害该国的旅游业。）

Adam Markham, the deputy director for climate and energy at the Union of Concerned Scientists and the report’s lead author, said that while many of the sites were bound to be affected by factors including a rise in sea levels, intense storms and wildfires, planning could go a long way toward protecting them.

这份报告的主要作者是忧思科学家联盟的气候和能源副主任亚当·马克姆(Adam Markham)。他说，虽然很多遗址必定会受到某些因素的影响，包括海平面上升、猛烈的暴风雨和野火，但做好规划对文物保护会有很大帮助。

“It is a very tough challenge, but if we recognize the scale of the problem — and I don’t think most people realize how big it is or how fast the changes are coming — then I think there is a lot we can do,” he said.

“这是非常艰巨的挑战，但是如果我们意识到问题的严重性——我觉得大部分人没有意识到问题有多大或变化来得多么快——那么我觉得我们有很多事情可做，”他说。

The report highlights 31 sites in 29 countries that have already felt some impact from climate change, including well-known tourist destinations like Easter Island and Yellowstone National Park. It was drawn from peer-reviewed science literature, technical reports and local experts, as well as domestic evaluations of the sites prepared for the World Heritage Committee.

这份报告重点提到29个国家的31处已经感受到气候变化影响的遗址，包括一些著名旅游目的地，比如复活节岛(Easter Island)和黄石国家公园(Yellowstone National Park)。这份报告依据的是经过同行评议的科学文献、技术报告和当地专家，也有各国为世界遗产委员会(World Heritage Committee)准备的国内遗址评估。

Though the report emphasizes the importance of the recent Paris climate accord, Mr. Markham said that emissions already affecting the climate are likely to create “a lot of change and impact.”

虽然这份报告强调了最近达成的巴黎气候协议的重要性，但马克姆称，已经对气候构成影响的温室气体排放很可能造成“很多变化和冲击”。

“We don’t have enough resources to save every threatened asset,” he said. “Can we save every lighthouse that is on an eroding cliff? Probably not. So there are going to have to be hard choices made in every country.”

“我们没有足够的资源挽救每一个遭到威胁的遗产，”他说，“我们能挽救侵蚀悬崖上的每一座灯塔吗？很可能不能。所以每个国家都得做出艰难的选择。”

Thirteen listed heritage sites were examined in comprehensive case studies intended to demonstrate the way climate change has already had an impact. In a study of the Statue of Liberty, for instance, the effects of Hurricane Sandy, which scientists have shown were exacerbated by a rise in the sea level, are explored at length.

这份报告对13个遗址进行全面案例分析，旨在展示气候变化造成影响的方式。比如，在对自由女神像的研究中，飓风“桑迪”(Hurricane Sandy)的影响得到了详细探讨——科学家已经表明，海平面上升加剧了“桑迪”的破坏力。

Rebecca Beavers, the coastal adaptation coordinator of the National Park Service who helps the agency plan for the impact of climate change, and was an adviser on the report, said the damage to the facilities and infrastructure at the Statue of Liberty from the 2012 storm had precipitated a new focus on how best to contend with extreme weather.

美国国家公园管理局(National Park Service)的海岸适应协调员丽贝卡·比弗斯(Rebecca Beavers)帮助该机构规划应对气候变化影响的措施，她也是这份报告的顾问。她说，2012年的飓风“桑迪”对自由女神像的设备和基础设施的损害，促使相关方面把注意力转向思考对抗极端天气的最佳方法。

“I think that it’s important to recognize that adaptation is continuous change,” Ms. Beavers said. “It’s not isolated action, it’s not a single step. It really is a process.”

“我认为，大家必须认识到，适应是一个持续的变化，”比弗斯说，“它不是一个孤立行为，也不是单项措施。它真的是一个过程。”

The report includes a series of recommendations for government agencies, the tourism industry and heritage site managers. It emphasizes that the sites themselves represented a trove of historical information on human responses to extreme weather, and that the archaeological data they held could help guide policy makers.

这份报告给政府机构、旅游业和遗址管理者提出了一系列建议。它强调，这些遗址本身就是人类应对极端天气的历史信息宝库，它们所包含的考古数据也许可以对政策制定者提供指导。

Mr. Markham, who is British, said he personally was very upset about what was happening to Skara Brae, a 5,000-year-old Neolithic settlement that is one of many sites off the coast of Scotland at risk from coastal erosion.

马克姆是英国人，他说，他个人对斯卡拉布雷(Skara Brae)的遭遇感到非常难过。斯卡拉布雷是一个有5000年历史的新石器时代定居点，也是苏格兰海岸面临海岸侵蚀风险的很多遗址之一。

“This is the famous one, which I’ve never seen and I want to be able to see, but I care about all of those sites,” Mr. Markham said. “For me, that is my cultural heritage, disappearing into the ocean.”

“这是一个著名遗址，我从没去过，我希望将来能去看看，不过我关心所有的遗址，”马克姆说，“对我来说，那是我的文化遗产，正消失到海里。”